NEW: Iowa Governor’s Race Ranked Best Pickup Opportunity in 2026

National Journal: “Lahn is untested as a candidate, and Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand wasted little time defining him before he could define himself.”

DES MOINES, IA – New race ratings from the nonpartisan National Journal’s gubernatorial power rankings declared Iowa as Democrats’ best pickup opportunity this cycle and the second-most likely governor’s race to flip in 2026. The report points to Rob’s strengths as a candidate, calling him “one of the strongest Democrats running statewide across the country,” noting his record of “emphasizing government accountability and criticizing both parties,” as State Auditor, and showing up for Iowans across the state as part of his 100 Town Hall Tour, “the second since launching his bid.”

In its analysis, National Journal also pointed to Republican nominee Zach Lahn’s weaknesses, including being an “untested” candidate who is defined by being a “carpetbagger from Kansas” and an “experienced political operative.” The rankings also mention the unpopularity of outgoing Governor Kim Reynolds, who Zach Lahn has tied himself to, claiming to be “grateful” for everything she’s done, and “embrac[ing] Reynolds legacy.”

“Hot off the heels of another record-breaking fundraising report, this new race rating shows the continued momentum behind Rob Sand. His grassroots coalition grows by the day as he goes around the state for his 100 Town Hall Tour, and voters across the state are showing up in huge numbers to make one thing clear: Iowans are ready for change,” said Deputy Campaign Manager Emma O’Brien. “After a decade of one-party control, Iowans are sick and tired of a politics favoring insiders and special interests that has left them worse off. But with Kansas carpetbagger and career political operative Zach Lahn, that’s exactly what they’d get. In every community, Iowans are ready for a new direction and are fired up to elect Rob Sand as the next governor of Iowa.”

Inside Elections, Cook Political Report, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have all moved the governor’s race to a toss-up. Just this week, Rob Sand announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $9.38 million in less than two months, outraising Lahn by $3 million. Rob has continued to build support across the aisle, including receiving contributions from over 2,400 registered Republicans and announcing a slate of over 100 Rob-publicans earlier this summer.

Read more from National Journal here or key quotes below:

Lahn is untested as a candidate, and Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand wasted little time defining him before he could define himself.
Sand recast Lahn as a carpetbagger from Kansas and an experienced political operative, undercutting the image he cultivated during the primary as an outsider willing to take on big agriculture interests.
Sand’s first ad attacking Lahn argued that, as a “part-time Iowan,” Lahn was ill-equipped to take on issues like a sagging economy and rising cancer rates—the latter reference a direct shot on one of the core themes of Lahn’s MAHA-inspired platform.
Sand is one of the strongest Democrats running statewide across the country, and he is giving the party a playbook to gain back ground in the heartland.
Sand is currently on a “100 Town Hall Tour,” the second since launching his bid. He’s built a moderate populist brand by emphasizing government accountability and criticizing both parties.
With his strength as a candidate, along with the unpopularity of retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds and the strain of tariffs on the farm economy, Republicans know this is one of their toughest holds of the cycle.