Top Race Rater Moves Iowa’s Governor’s Race In Favor of Rob Sand

DES MOINES, IA –This week, Inside Elections, a top national race-rater, moved Iowa’s 2026 gubernatorial race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” citing the fact that Rob is “running a strong campaign,” and noting that Rob’s credentials as a hunter and person of faith makes him a strong candidate for the general election. This latest ratings change underscores Rob Sand’s specific strengths as a candidate and the momentum behind his campaign.

“The momentum behind Rob Sand’s campaign keeps growing, and this latest rating shift is further proof of what Iowans are saying every day: it’s time for change,”  said Deputy Campaign Manager Emma O’Brien. “Iowans across the state and across the political spectrum are rallying behind a campaign that listens to them and puts them first, not partisan insiders or special interests. Rob is proving that this race isn’t about party labels — it’s about who will deliver real results for Iowans and bring an end to the status quo that has failed Iowans for the last decade of one-party rule.”

This comes shortly after the National Journal placed Iowa among the top five governor’s races most likely to flip in 2026, ranking it as the second-best pickup opportunity for Democrats this cycle. Upon entering the governor’s race in May 2025, Rob’s candidacy spurred Cook Political Report a rare “double-jump” rating shift from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican,” calling Rob the “strongest contender his party could have recruited for the opening.” Fellow race analyst Sabato’s Crystal Ball echoed Cook’s move shortly after. The National Journal has since called Sand “the strongest Democrat running statewide anywhere in the country this cycle.” 

Since launching his campaign, Rob Sand has crisscrossed Iowa, connecting with more than 10,100 Iowans of all political stripes during his 2025 100 Town Hall Tour. Everywhere he goes, Rob is breaking records — from raising a historic $9.5 million in 2025, outraising the entire gubernatorial field and even having more Republican donors than the Republican candidates themselves, to submitting 24,756 petition signatures, the most in Iowa election history. With record-setting grassroots support, growing enthusiasm across the state, and a message focused on putting Iowa families first, Rob Sand is in the strongest position possible heading into the general election.